The latest analysis report of the fiberglass industry in 2024: a model of composite materials, where cycles and growth coexist
Fiberglass: a model of composite material, used in various fields of the national economy.
Fiberglass is a high-performance inorganic non-metallic new material. It has excellent properties such as lightweight, high strength, high and low-temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, heat insulation, flame retardant, sound absorption, electrical insulation, and a certain degree of functional designability. It is widely used in various industrial fields. From the perspective of the industry chain, the upstream of the industry consists of ores and chemical raw materials, which can be supplied domestically; the midstream manufacturing companies have high global concentration, with the top six companies accounting for more than 75% of the world's total production capacity; the downstream demand side, the correlation between industry growth and GDP growth Large, incremental demand will be released based on subdivided areas.
Supply and demand: Demand determines the cycle, and supply releases elasticity.
On the supply side, the industry combines high capital and high technology, with high entry barriers. The industry structure at home and abroad is relatively stable, and the global market size is about 10 million tons; new additions will be synchronized with cold repairs in 2023, and the increase in marginal output will be limited. The prosperity level in 2024 Determines the release of production capacity, and new additions to the industry may be controllable. On the demand side, it is widely used and related to GDP growth. Domestic economic recovery determines the basic demand, and wind power installed capacity contributes to demand growth. On the cost and profit side, the production scale of an enterprise is the core of cost and a long-term influencing factor, while changes in energy prices are an important variable in the cost margin. Compared with leading companies, product differentiation, high-end structure, and integrated layout can increase the selling price of products. , and scale and precise management will effectively reduce costs. In 2024, supply and demand will match, and the supply of roving is slightly greater than the demand. The prosperity depends on whether the economic recovery exceeds expectations; the demand for fine yarn releases digestion capacity, and the price elasticity depends on the growth of consumer electronics.
Review cycle: The boom starts the cycle, and prices release stock price elasticity.
Judging from the three cycles from 2013 to the present, good economic fundamentals are a prerequisite for the start of the fiberglass cycle, and the increase in subdivided demand is the main determinant of the upward amplitude and space of the boom. Among them, the first cycle (2013-2016) was driven by the resonance of demand from the three aspects of housing reform, wind power, and overseas. The stock prices of listed companies later started based on industry fundamentals, and then peaked at product prices; in the second cycle (2016-2020) The demand for real estate and wind power started the boom, and the stock prices of listed companies started and peaked before the price cycle; the third cycle (2020-present) was driven by new energy and overseas demand, and the stock prices of companies started simultaneously with the destocking. Rise and peak in the price cycle.
