What impact will Toyota's two-year delivery time for looms have on the PCB industry?

Normally, with the surge in downstream demand, upstream fiberglass electronic fabric manufacturers could significantly increase production to meet orders and delivery volumes. However, the production of Toyota JAT910 series air-jet looms, essential for producing high-end electronic fabrics, is currently in short supply. Order schedules are full, hindering rapid delivery, and newly signed orders have delivery cycles exceeding 24 months. Furthermore, Toyota has explicitly stated that it has no plans for factory expansion or capacity increase in the short term, resulting in virtually no increase in global supply of high-end looms.

Before 2020, the normal delivery time for Toyota looms was around one year; by 2023, this had extended to over 18 months; however, since the beginning of this year, all high-end models have required over 24 months for delivery, with some ultra-thin fabric and Q-fabric models even having delivery dates as late as 2030. This means downstream customers will have to wait approximately four years to receive their new machines and begin production. Toyota's annual total loom production is normally between 1800 and 2000 units, meaning monthly shipments are only around 150 to 200 units. This is far from meeting the demand from downstream electronic fabric manufacturers.

According to industry research, several leading domestic fiberglass electronic fabric manufacturers originally planned to add approximately 6000 looms after capacity expansion in 2026-2027. However, currently, only about 2000 new Toyota looms are available for delivery domestically each year. This has forced many companies to postpone their expansion projects. For example, the Kingboard Group's new 180 million-meter electronic fabric production line, which was originally planned to go into operation this year, originally ordered 1000 Toyota looms, but so far, less than 500 units have been delivered, delaying the start of production until mid-to-late 2027. Many companies have large PCB orders from downstream customers but are unable to deliver them on time due to the lack of looms.

This year, 7628 standard fabric, 2116 medium-thin fabric, and 1080 ultra-thin fabric have all experienced multiple price increases, with further price hikes expected in June. Ordinary electronic fabric has already increased by 10%, while the price increases for high-end server-grade Low-Dk thin fabric and Q fabric are even more significant, with the unit price of high-end electronic fabric more than doubling. Currently, many domestic electronic fabric manufacturers have insufficient finished product inventory, and some precision high-end electronic fabric companies have virtually no stock. Downstream copper-clad laminate (CCL) manufacturers can only obtain goods through advance payment and pre-ordering. Some small and medium-sized CCL companies are frequently forced to halt production due to material shortages caused by unstable electronic fabric supply.

The main issue is that domestically produced looms are unlikely to replace high-end foreign looms in the short term, giving foreign companies like Toyota more leverage over equipment delivery times. High-end electronic fabric weaving allows for micron-level tension control, ensuring stable production even during continuous, long-term weaving. The probability of fabric defects is extremely low. Currently, domestically produced looms can only produce standard fabrics like 7628. For industries like 1080 ultra-thin fabric and low-dielectric Q fabric, there are still gaps in product qualification rates and equipment production stability. The pass rate for high-end customer certification is relatively low, and domestically produced machines are unlikely to replace Toyota equipment on a large scale in the short term.

Therefore, the total supply of electronic fabric in 2026 is still limited, and prices are predicted to continue to rise. However, if domestically produced weaving machines improve with the technological iteration of domestic textile machinery, the substitution of domestic equipment could potentially break the monopoly on electronic fabric weaving machines and become a key indicator of future supply chain changes in the PCB industry.